Regional climate data, extreme-value actuarial models and parametric contract design for agricultural insurers, reinsurers and investors in Uzbekistan. Payouts settle on a measured index, so no field loss assessment stands between a drought and a farmer's account. O'zbekistondagi qishloq xo'jaligi sug'urtachilari, qayta sug'urtalovchilar va investorlar uchun hududiy iqlim ma'lumotlari, ekstremal qiymatlar nazariyasiga asoslangan aktuar modellar va parametrik shartnoma dizayni. To'lov o'lchangan indeks bo'yicha amalga oshiriladi — qurg'oqchilik bilan fermer hisobvarag'i orasida dala ekspertizasi turmaydi.
Analytics and risk modelsTahlil va risk modellari
Average weather explains very little about yield in an irrigated system — irrigation absorbs the variation. What remains is a weak heat-stress signal and a loss distribution whose tail matters more than its mean. Our models price the tail directly and test every climate signal before relying on it. Sug'oriladigan tizimda o'rtacha ob-havo hosildorlikni deyarli izohlamaydi — sug'orish tebranishni yutib yuboradi. Qolgani — kuchsiz issiqlik stressi signali va o'rtachasidan ko'ra quyrug'i muhimroq bo'lgan zarar taqsimoti. Modellarimiz quyruqni bevosita narxlaydi va har bir iqlim signalini tayanishdan oldin sinovdan o'tkazadi.
District-level series from 1981 onward: wind, temperature, precipitation and vegetation indices, aligned to the crop calendar and reconciled against station records. 1981-yildan boshlab tuman kesimidagi qatorlar: shamol, harorat, yog'in va vegetatsiya indekslari — ekin kalendariga moslangan va stansiya yozuvlari bilan solishtirilgan.
Gumbel distributions, chosen because the GEV shape parameter cannot be identified on the short series regional statistics provide. Return levels, VaR and CVaR follow from the same fit. Gumbel taqsimoti — hududiy statistikaning qisqa qatorlarida GEV shakl parametri aniqlanmagani uchun tanlangan. Qaytish darajalari, VaR va CVaR shu moslashtirishdan kelib chiqadi.
Trigger and exit levels derived from a target payout frequency rather than picked by convention, then priced with the stop-loss transform and checked against the historical burn rate. Trigger va exit darajalari an'anaga ko'ra emas, maqsadli to'lov chastotasidan hisoblanadi, so'ng stop-loss transformatsiyasi bilan narxlanadi va tarixiy burn rate bilan tekshiriladi.
CVaR at 99% and probable maximum loss per district, so a portfolio can be sized and a reinsurance layer placed against a number rather than a guess. Har tuman uchun 99% darajadagi CVaR va ehtimoliy maksimal yo'qotish — portfelni o'lchash va qayta sug'urta qatlamini taxminga emas, raqamga tayanib joylashtirish uchun.
SACRA
SACRA turns a district's yield history and climate record into a priced parametric contract. Select a district on the map, set a coverage level and sum insured, and the calculator returns the fitted distribution, the return-level curve, the payout function and the premium breakdown — with the validation checks visible alongside the numbers. SACRA tumanning hosildorlik tarixi va iqlim yozuvini narxlangan parametrik shartnomaga aylantiradi. Xaritadan tumanni tanlaysiz, qoplama darajasi va sug'urta summasini belgilaysiz — kalkulyator moslashtirilgan taqsimotni, qaytish darajasi egri chizig'ini, to'lov funksiyasini va premiya tarkibini qaytaradi. Tekshiruv natijalari raqamlar yonida ko'rinib turadi.
Insurer and investor solutionsSug'urtachi va investor uchun
A district-differentiated rate table instead of a single regional rate, so low-variability districts stop subsidising high-risk ones and the portfolio stops selecting against itself. Yagona viloyat tarifi o'rniga tuman kesimida differensiatsiyalangan tarif jadvali — past o'zgaruvchanlikdagi tumanlar yuqori xavflilarni subsidiyalashdan to'xtaydi va portfel o'ziga qarshi tanlanmaydi.
CVaR and probable maximum loss give a defensible basis for a retention level and for the attachment point of an excess-of-loss treaty. CVaR va ehtimoliy maksimal yo'qotish ushlab qolish darajasi hamda excess-of-loss shartnomasining biriktirish nuqtasi uchun asoslangan poydevor beradi.
A vegetation check on the weeks before the hazard window shows whether a field was actually cultivated. Heat in May cannot explain a field that was bare in March, which closes the gap a parametric trigger alone leaves open. Xavf oynasidan oldingi haftalardagi vegetatsiya tekshiruvi dalaga haqiqatan ishlov berilganini ko'rsatadi. Maydagi issiq martda bo'sh turgan dalani izohlay olmaydi — bu parametrik triggerning o'zi ochiq qoldiradigan bo'shliqni yopadi.
District-level index series and fitted parameters can be delivered as files or through an endpoint for integration into an existing underwriting system. Tuman kesimidagi indeks qatorlari va moslashtirilgan parametrlar fayl sifatida yoki mavjud andrayting tizimiga integratsiya uchun endpoint orqali taqdim etilishi mumkin.
CredentialsGuvohnoma va asos
The analytical engine is registered with the Intellectual Property Agency of the Republic of Uzbekistan. Registration establishes authorship of the software; the methodology itself rests on the doctoral research and peer-reviewed work behind it. Tahliliy yadro O'zbekiston Respublikasi Intellektual mulk agentligida ro'yxatdan o'tkazilgan. Ro'yxat dasturning mualliflik huquqini tasdiqlaydi; metodologiyaning o'zi esa uning ortidagi doktorlik tadqiqoti va taqrizdan o'tgan ishlarga tayanadi.
ContactAloqa
Tell us the districts and crop you underwrite and what you need the numbers for. Institutional enquiries are answered directly. Qaysi tumanlar va ekin bo'yicha ishlashingizni hamda raqamlar nima uchun kerakligini yozing. Institutsional so'rovlarga to'g'ridan-to'g'ri javob beriladi.